Two clocks, ticking loudly
At the end of each quarter of the year, I plan to post a headline-style summary of the main developments in peak oil and global warming on the blog, and then comment on its significance. To this first posting I have added the entire diary for 2005.
I see two clear themes in this diary. First, the imminence of a global energy crisis has evolved over the last 12-15 months from what the detractors of peak oil call a "hobbyist" warning to a growing mainstream concern in the finance and business worlds. Second, global warming has crystallised as a clear and present danger requiring policy responses akin to mobilisation for war. More and more people, and organisations, are realising this. It is hardly surprising. The diary reads like a drumbeat of quickening tempo.
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Listen to the rocks
Economists tend to argue for a later oil production peak and tend to be blind to the geological facts.
Budget day in the UK: a good day to think about economics and some of the more strident criticisms in the comments on my blog to date.
One reader calls on economics to explain why the peak oil argument is wrong. He is not alone among economists in believing that there are huge amounts of oil yet to be extracted. In fact, the whole debate can be crudely characterised as one dominated by economists on the side of a late peak in production and geologists on the early side.
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The oil depletion balance sheet
Analysis in a flagship industry journal suggests the day demand for petroleum exceeds demand is not far off.
Every six months or so, a flagship oil industry trade journal, Petroleum Review, publishes an analysis of the oil industry's success rate in bringing new oil production to the market. The latest study appears in April's issue. Although you have to read between the lines to hear it, the whistle blows loud from the pages. The day that global demand for oil exceeds supply - the day when prices go through the roof and shockwaves reverberate through every market - does not seem to be far off.
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